Spring is Officially Here! NOAA Issues Spring Outlook

This year, March 20th is the first day of spring, or the Spring Equinox (Vernal Equinox) and marks the first official astronomical day hinting of warmer temperatures ahead. This is great news for Americans who have waited patiently for relief from the spate of cold weather seen in recent weeks.

The Spring Equinox is the day in which the sun’s rays directly cross over the Earth’s equator from the southern hemisphere to the northern hemisphere, slowly bringing the heat towards the north. The sun shines directly on the equator only twice a year – March 20/21 and September 22/23 (the Autumn Equinox).

NOAA just released their official Spring Outlook and predicts a moderate flood risk in the Midwest, an elevated risk of ice jams and the continuation of drought in California and the Southwest. Here is their 2014 Spring Outlook:

Spring Flood Risk

National Weather Service hydrologists predict moderate flooding in parts of southern Wisconsin, southern Michigan and portions of Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa as a result of the current snowpack and the deep layer of frozen ground coupled with expected seasonal temperatures and rainfall. At risk are the Mississippi River and the Illinois River as well as many smaller rivers in these regions. Small streams and rivers in the lower Missouri basin in Missouri and eastern Kansas have already experienced minor flooding this year and the threat of moderate flooding will persist through the spring.

Credit: NOAA

Credit: NOAA

There is a risk of moderate flooding along the Red River of the North between eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota, and along the Souris River below Minot, N.D. River ice, snowpack and significant frozen ground are factors in the flood risk for this area. Additionally, there is a risk of moderate flooding for western South Dakota because of current saturated soils.

Minor flooding is likely in the northern Rockies, parts of the Midwest, and the Great Lakes region. Minor flooding is also possible in the Northeast, the lower Mississippi River basin, and across the entire Southeast up to Virginia, including east Texas, and parts of Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia and the Florida panhandle. In these areas, spring flood risk is highly dependent on rainfall.

Drought Outlook

Significant and widespread drought conditions continue in California which experienced its warmest and third driest winter on record. Drought is expected to persist or intensify in California, Nevada, most of interior Oregon and Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, southeast Colorado, western Oklahoma, and most of west Texas because of below-average rain or snow this winter and the onset of the dry season in April. If the drought persists as predicted in the West and Southwest, it will likely result in an active wildfire season, continued stress on crops and livestock due to low water levels, and an expansion of water conservation measures. Drought removal expected for the Big Island of Hawaii.

Credit: NOAA

Credit: NOAA

Drought improvement is likely in Washington, southeast Idaho, extreme northern and coastal Oregon, western and central sections of Nebraska and Kansas, central Oklahoma, and the Midwest. Drought is not expected east of the Mississippi River during the next three months.

More information about drought can be found at www.drought.gov, a clearinghouse of drought-related materials managed by NOAA including maps, tools, and information to help prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought.

Temperature & Precipitation Outlook

Below-normal temperatures this spring are favored for an area from Montana eastward across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes region, while warmer-than-normal temperatures are most likely for western sections of Washington and Oregon, California, the desert Southwest, the southern Plains, the Southeast and all of Alaska.

Credit: NOAA

Temperature outlook – Credit: NOAA

For precipitation, odds favor drier-than-normal conditions for the Alaska panhandle, western Washington and Oregon, California and parts of Nevada and Arizona. Hawaii is favored to be both warmer and wetter than normal this spring.

Credit: NOAA

Precipitation outlook – Credit: NOAA

Stay Safe. Know Before™.

The WeatherBug – Earth Networks Team


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This entry was posted in Spring.