Too Good to be True: A 45-day forecast

In August, some other weather company launched a 45-day forecast for any location in the United States. Now this may sound impressive, but to the informed (such as Capital Weather Gang’s chief meteorologist Jason Samenow), it’s a joke.

Credit: 2493™ via Flickr

Credit: 2493™ via Flickr

Interested people, including many professional meteorologists, have compared this 45-day forecast to actual observations for each day during the time period. What they concluded shouldn’t be a surprise — the 45-day forecast was largely off the mark and inaccurate. Most of the time, it wasn’t even close.

Credit: KungPaoCajun via Flickr

Credit: KungPaoCajun via Flickr

As you may know, “the discipline of meteorology is far from an exact science and is more about understanding a fluid atmosphere then analyzing past movement to predict what it will do in the future” according to the Capital Weather Gang. Turns out that predicting the future is a lot harder than it seems.

Credit: born1945 via Flickr

Credit: born1945 via Flickr

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